MainStreetMacro · Updated May 28, 2026 — 5:40 PM CT · Live Federal Reserve Data
Should your business be playing offense or defense right now?
Built by a Main Street business owner who got tired of reading Wall Street analysis written for Wall Street. We pull directly from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) system — the same data source the Fed itself uses. 12 indicators. One score. Plain English. Free.
49
Brent back up to $114.89 (Sept 22). Hormuz still closed, day 207. Oil stress is not easing.
Today: 47 · Peak this month: 79 (May 4) · One year ago: ~41
The score runs 0 to 100. Higher means more economic stress on Main Street. Zones: under 30 Normal, 30-49 Elevated, 50-69 High, 70 and up Critical. It peaked at 79 on May 4, 2026. As of Sept 24, 2026 most of the stress comes from oil (Brent above $110, Strait of Hormuz still closed) and weak consumer sentiment; jobless claims and credit markets are still calm. The score is a stress gauge, not a recession forecast.
Oil above $110 with the Strait of Hormuz still closed. Consumer sentiment near its record low (Sept preliminary 47.8). Jobless claims and credit markets calm so far. The verdict (Sept 24, 2026): protect cash and credit access now. Defense does not mean panic; it means being ready.
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For informational purposes only. Nothing on this site is financial, legal, investment, or accounting advice. The ESI score and all content are economic context to help business owners think — not recommendations to buy, sell, borrow, or take any specific action. Consult a qualified financial or legal professional before making significant business decisions. MainStreetMacro is not affiliated with or endorsed by the Federal Reserve, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, ISM, Polymarket, Kalshi, or any other named institution or data source.
Today's Signal
Stay Defensive
Score 49 / ELEVATED, sitting just under the HIGH line. Brent $114.89 and Hormuz still closed. Credit markets calm (HY OAS 273) and claims low (197K), so the stress is oil and mood, not jobs or credit yet.
Biggest Concern This Week
Consumer mood: U-Mich 47.8
September preliminary sentiment fell 3.9 pts to 47.8, near May's record low, with year-ahead inflation expectations up to 4.6%. FRED still shows July (55.2), so the score understates this by ~2 pts. Watch Hormuz talks for the oil side.
Watch This Week
US-Iran Hormuz talks
Talks are active with no framework yet (Sept 24). A credible reopening is the single biggest thing that would pull the score down; a new strike on shipping pushes it up.
3 Actions for Your Business · written May 2026, not yet updated
1
Lock your credit line before Q3
SLOOS tightening data goes public in 60-90 days. Banks are already tightening quietly. Apply or increase your line while you still qualify easily — this window closes by August.
2
Audit your discretionary vendor spend
Consumer confidence is at a record low. Spending pullback is 60-90 days away. Know which costs you can cut first — before revenue softens, not after.
3
Build toward 90 days of cash reserve
The current stress window is 30-90 days. 90 days of operating reserves means you have options. Less than 45 days means you make reactive cuts that compound the problem.
How Every Major Signal Lines Up Right Now
The Full Picture — 12 Sources, One Verdict
The ESI measures stress on small businesses; institutional models estimate recession odds. They measure different things. Goldman and JP Morgan figures below are from May 2026 public reporting and have not been re-checked.
| Signal | Reading | Implies | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| ESI — Main Street Stress MainStreetMacro (12 indicators) |
49 / 100 | ELEVATED | This dashboard |
| Sahm Rule FRED: SAHMREALTIME |
0.13 | Green — well below 0.50 trigger | St. Louis Fed |
| Atlanta Fed GDPNow FRED: GDPNOW (current quarter) |
+3.82% | Economy still growing | Atlanta Fed |
| ISM Manufacturing PMI ismworld.org (monthly) |
52.7 | Expanding (above 50) | ISM |
| Smoothed Recession Probability FRED: RECPROUSM156N |
1.82% | Well below concern threshold | St. Louis Fed |
| Goldman Sachs 12-mo recession probability · as of May 2026 · public reporting |
35% | Elevated — not base case | Public reporting |
| JP Morgan 12-mo recession probability · as of May 2026 · public reporting |
35% | Resilient but cautious | Public reporting |
Why ESI reads higher than institutional estimates: Institutional models ask "will GDP go negative?" ESI asks "is the environment actively hostile for a business running on 20-30% margins?" Energy costs up 30%, consumer confidence at record lows, and credit access tightening answer that question before GDP does. The ESI is designed to fire 3-9 months before formal recession calls. That lead time is the entire value for Main Street.
Market Voice Consensus
We track 5 independent economic voices across institutional research, credit markets, and independent macro analysis. Updated every two weeks. This is a directional read on expert sentiment — not financial advice and not an endorsement of any source.
4 of 5
Voices are Cautious or Bear
0 Bull · 3 Cautious · 2 Bear · Updated May 2026
0 Bull
3 Cautious
2 Bear
Theme 1 of 4
Hormuz is the binary gate
The Strait of Hormuz closure is the single variable most tracked voices are watching. Resolution brings Brent back toward $90. Continuation compounds into a consumer spending shock by Q3.
Theme 2 of 4
Credit markets signaling stress early
Global dollar funding stress is appearing in repo and credit markets before it shows in unemployment or GDP. Labor data is a lagging indicator — it confirms the problem after the damage is done.
Theme 3 of 4
Employment at stall speed
Total employment has added no net jobs since early 2025. No acute layoff spike yet — but stall speed is historically how cycles end. Businesses with thin margins feel this before official data does.
Theme 4 of 4
Energy shock hits Main Street asymmetrically
Institutional models absorb energy shocks differently than a business running 20-30% margins. A 30% fuel and freight cost increase is a rounding error for a Fortune 500. It is an existential event for a small fleet or restaurant.
Themes synthesized from publicly available economic research and commentary. No individual is quoted or identified. This is editorial synthesis for informational purposes only — not financial advice. MainStreetMacro is not affiliated with any research firm or analyst.
Business Vitals · written May 2026 (Input Costs updated Sept 24)
Credit Access
Tightening
Bank standards rising (SLOOS +5.3%). Act in next 60-90 days before window closes publicly.
Consumer Demand
Weakening
U-Mich at record low (47.6). Spending pullback typically follows in 2-3 months.
Input Costs
Elevated
Brent $114.89 (Sept 22), above $100 since spring. Hormuz closed ~207 days. No relief until it reopens.
Labor Market
Holding
Claims 211K (LIVE). NFP 115K beat. Sahm Rule 0.37 — 0.13 from alarm. Floor intact for now.
Credit Window
Act: 60-90 Days
CMBS office at record (11.7%). Regional banks tightening quietly. Lock access before Q3.
Forward Look · written May 2026, not yet updated
Near-Term — Next 30 Days
HIGH
Hormuz is the binary gate. Brent spiked to $116.73 — Hormuz closure held. If Iran signals resolution, score drops toward 42-48. If closure holds or escalates, score returns toward 70+.
Warsh's first FOMC meeting is June 16-17. No cuts expected while PCE is at 2.6%. Monetary policy is a headwind regardless of the Iran outcome.
High confidence — real-time data
Warsh's first FOMC meeting is June 16-17. No cuts expected while PCE is at 2.6%. Monetary policy is a headwind regardless of the Iran outcome.
Structural Outlook — 3 to 6 Months
ELEVATED RISK
NFIB at 87.5 (alarm zone). Hiring freezes decided now show in payrolls 6-9 months later.
Yield curve +0.49% (LIVE). Bounced +6bp from Sunday's 0.43% low. Hovering just below 0.5% threshold — not inverted, oscillating in a tight band.
Building permits -4% YoY. Housing leads every post-war recession. Signal active now.
Estimated — wider confidence band
Yield curve +0.49% (LIVE). Bounced +6bp from Sunday's 0.43% low. Hovering just below 0.5% threshold — not inverted, oscillating in a tight band.
Building permits -4% YoY. Housing leads every post-war recession. Signal active now.
What's Moving the Score · written May 2026 (oil line updated Sept 24)
Pushing Risk Higher
Oil stress back at the top of the scale. Brent $114.89 (FRED, Sept 22), above the $110 red trigger. Hormuz still effectively closed (1 transit on Sept 20 vs 85/day normal). US-Iran talks active, no deal.
Consumer confidence at a record low. U-Mich 47.6. Spending contraction typically follows within 2-3 months.
Hawkish Fed locked into stagflation. Warsh confirmed. No cuts while PCE at 2.6% and GDP softening. Policy is a headwind.
Small business pessimism at alarm zone. NFIB 87.5 — leads hiring decisions by 6-9 months. Structural signal for Q3-Q4.
Credit tightening. HY OAS 271 bps (LIVE) — down 15 bps from May 20 peak of 286. Institutional credit markets calm alongside falling oil.
Holding Risk Down
Labor holding. Claims 211K (LIVE). NFP 115K. Unemployment 4.3%. Sahm Rule has not fired.
Real economy still expanding. ISM PMI 52.7 — manufacturing in expansion. Positive offset to financial stress.
Yield curve watching. +0.49% (LIVE) — bounced +6bp from Sunday's 0.43% low. Hovering just below 0.5% threshold. Still positive, not inverted. HY OAS 274 bps tightening confirms credit markets are calm.
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Dated section. The trend chart, Brent, U-Mich, HY OAS, claims, yield curve and NFIB gauges update from live data. Everything else in this analyst section (scenario odds, indicator board, leading edge, back-test, 7-day outlook) was written in May 2026 and has not been updated.
How the Score Is Built
The ESI (Economic Stress Index) is a weighted composite of 12 indicators across 5 categories. Each indicator is scored within its historical range, then combined into a single 0-100 number. Higher = more economic stress on Main Street businesses.
Oil and Geopolitical (25%)Brent crude futures, oil gap between spot and futures, geopolitical disruption assessment
Consumer and Sentiment (22%)U-Michigan Consumer Sentiment, NFIB Small Business Optimism
Credit Markets (20%)HY OAS spread, CMBS office delinquency, C&I loan growth
Labor Market (18%)Initial jobless claims, Sahm Rule, NFP payrolls
Structural and Leading (15%)Yield curve (10yr-2yr), building permits, NY Fed recession probability, SLOOS bank lending standards
ESI is not a recession probability. It is a stress index. We do not translate it into a recession percentage; no calibrated mapping exists.
Model v3.0 · Last data refresh: see the timestamp at the top of the page · 10 scored indicators from FRED plus NFIB and a manual geopolitical overlay · a stale input is flagged in the data file
Full Score Breakdown — Weighted Contribution to Composite
⚡ Leading Edge — Indicators that fire months before the core dashboard reacts
Watch agreement across signals, not individual readings
Composite Trend — Every refresh appends a point · watch the slope, not the level
Core Gauges
Scenario Probabilities
Mild Slowdown
8
Shallow Recession
20
Deep Recession Modal
42
Systemic Crisis
30
Indicator Board
| Indicator | Current | Green | Yellow | Red | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Futures (front) | $114.89 (Day ~207) | <$80 | $80–100 | >$100 | Red · above $110 trigger · Hormuz closed | LIVE (FRED) |
| Q1 2026 GDP (advance) | +2.0% | >2.5% | 1.0–2.5% | <1.0% | Yellow — soft miss | Fact (BEA Apr 30) |
| Core PCE (Mar, y/y) | 2.6% | <2.2% | 2.2–3.0% | >3.0% | Yellow — accelerating | Fact (BEA Apr 30) |
| Yield Curve (10yr-2yr) | +0.49% | >+0.5% | 0 to +0.5% | <-0.5% | Yellow — bounced +6bp, hovering near 0.5% | LIVE (FRED) |
| Initial Claims | 215K (wk May 23) | <220K | 220–260K | >260K | Green — ticking up, watch trend | LIVE (FRED) |
| HY OAS | 271 bps | <300 | 300–500 | >500 | Green — tightening steadily | LIVE (FRED) |
| U-Mich Consumer Sentiment | 49.8 (final May) | >80 | 65–80 | <65 | Red — near record low, down from prelim 53.3 | Fact (May final) |
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | 52.7 (Apr 2026) | >50 | 48–50 | <48 | Green · expansion · positive offset | Fact (ISM May 1) |
| NY Fed Recession Prob | 35.8% (Mar 2026) | <20% | 20–40% | >40% | Yellow · elevated · rising | Fact (NY Fed) |
| Sahm Rule | ~0.37 | <0.30 | 0.30–0.50 | >0.50 | Yellow · 0.13 from trigger | Est (FRED) |
| CMBS Office Delinquency | ~11.7% | <6% | 6–10% | >10% | Red · all-time high | Est (Trepp) |
| NFIB Small Business | 87.5 (Apr 2026) | >95 | 88–95 | <88 | Red · alarm zone | Est |
Expanded Indicators — Credit · Labor · Consumer · Shadow Risk · Leading
Oil Gap — Dated Brent vs. Futures
Green <$15
Yellow $15–30
Red >$30
Current gap: ~$40 EST — RED
Trigger Rules
▲ Increase Risk
- Brent > $110 sustained 5 sessions
- Claims > 260K for 2 weeks
- ISM PMI < 48 for 3 months
- NY Fed DSGE prob > 40%
- Sahm Rule > 0.50 — alarm fires · +4 pts
- CMBS office delinquency > 15%
- HY OAS > 350 bps
▼ Decrease Risk
- Credible Hormuz ceasefire + transit resumed
- Oil gap compresses < $15
- U-Mich May prelim rebounds > 60
- HY OAS tightens > 50 bps from current
- Core CPI m/m < 0.2% next print
7-Day Scenario Outlook
Best Case · 30%
Iran signals Hormuz opening. Brent retreats to $88-95. HY OAS tightens to 255-270. Composite falls to 38-44. Warsh signals data-dependent posture at June FOMC.
Risk Case · 45%
Summit vague. Iran stalls. Warsh hawks into June FOMC. Storage crisis arrives late May. Brent re-spikes $120-130. HY breaks 350 bps. Composite returns to 80-84 (SEVERE).
Deep Activation Status
Needs ALL three: Brent >$115 ≥ 2wks · Unemp >4.6% (OFF — 4.3%) · A2/P2 >100 bps (OFF). Zero of three active.
Model Validation — 24-Month Back-Test
Retroactively calibrated from historical data using the same weighting logic applied today. Result: directionally correct at 10 of 12 validated inflection points.
Estimated
Live tracked
Back-Test Validation Events (Q4 2018 – Present)
| Date | Est. Score | Zone | Event | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2018 | 52 | High | Fed hike #9 · HY OAS 530 bps · SPX -20% | ✅ Correctly flagged stress |
| Q2 2019 | 40 | Elevated | Yield curve inverted · trade war | ✅ No recession followed — correct |
| Q4 2019 | 35 | Elevated | Fed cut 3x · Phase 1 deal · curve re-steepened | ✅ Score retreated correctly |
| Mar 2020 | 91 | Severe | COVID · GDP -31.4% · VIX 80+ | ✅ Severe — magnitude correct |
| Jun 2020 | 66 | High | CARES Act · Fed QE · labor recovering | ✅ Retreated correctly on policy |
| Mar 2022 | 76 | Severe | Russia invaded Ukraine · Brent $130 | ✅ Severe — no recession, retreated correctly |
| Oct 2022 | 64 | High | Peak hike fear · NY Fed 70.8% | ⚠️ High not Severe — stayed below 75 while NY Fed hit 70.8%. Key differentiator. |
| Jun 2023 | 54 | High | SVB aftermath · HY OAS ~470 | ✅ High but not Severe — no recession |
| Jul 2024 | 54 | High | Sahm Rule fired · Japan carry unwind | ✅ Led August 5 VIX crash by 3 weeks |
| Nov 2025 | 56 | High | Iran Hormuz threats · CMBS at 10%+ | ✅ Crossed High 3 months before Iran war — confirmed |
| May 4, 2026 | 79 | Severe | US-Iran exchange of fire · Brent $114 | ✅ Peak score = peak crisis |
| May 15, 2026 | 69 | High | First live FRED feed — 5/5 validated | ✅ Score confirmed on first live pull |
| May 20, 2026 AM | 49 | Elevated | v3.0 first run — Sahm 0.13 · GDPNow +3.99% · Brent $106 | ✅ Confirmed |
| May 20, 2026 PM | 53 | High | Brent spikes to $116.73 — oil driving score back up | 📊 Live monitoring |
Model Comparison — MainStreetMacro vs. Peers
| Model | Current Signal | Lead Time | False Alarms | Covers Oil/Geo | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MainStreetMacro (ESI) | Live ESI (see top of page) | Unproven | Unmeasured | Yes | Stress index, not a probability. Lead time and false-alarm rate have not been tested out of sample. |
| NY Fed Yield Curve | ~25-30% prob | 12 months | High — 70.8% in Oct 2022 | No | Best for long-horizon. Blind to oil/geo shocks. |
| Goldman Sachs (May 2026, public reporting) | ~35% 12-mo prob | 6-9 months | Moderate | Partial | Institutional grade. Monthly cadence. Baseline reference. |
| Sahm Rule | ~0.37 (alarm at 0.50) | 0 — fires at onset | Very low | No | Best confirmation tool, not predictor. |
Signal Summary
Phase: Mid-cycle stress tipping toward late-stage. Consumer has already broken (record-low sentiment); labor softening but not cracked; credit plumbing is the last domino.
Single most important indicator: A2/P2 commercial paper spread. Oil and sentiment say stress exists; CP says whether stress is funded or starving. Blow-out there converts shallow to deep.
Model Limitations — What This Does Not Do
Timing: This model does not predict the exact month a recession begins. Structural indicators have 6-10 month lead times — a rising score today reflects conditions being set now, not necessarily next week.
Policy reversals: A surprise Fed rate cut, emergency fiscal stimulus, or major geopolitical resolution can shift the score materially within 48 hours. The model updates when those events are reflected in the data.
Local variation: A national ESI reading does not mean every market or industry is equally stressed. An HVAC company in a supply-constrained market may feel less pressure than a restaurant in a high-rent urban corridor. Use the Business Risk Score tool to adjust for your specific situation.
Use as one input: This dashboard is a decision-support tool, not a financial advisor. It works best combined with your own P&L data, your banker's read on local credit conditions, and your industry's specific leading indicators.
Changelog — Every Update Since Launch
2026-09-24 11:10 · REFRESH AFTER 4-MONTH GAP · SCORE 49 Model v3.0 · Score 47 → 49 (+2). No refresh task existed; last pull was May 28. FACT (FRED): Brent $114.89 (9/22), yield curve +0.26%, claims 197K, HY OAS 273 bps. FACT (manual, verified): NFIB Aug 98.7 (was Apr 95.9); Hormuz still closed, day ~207, geo overlay held at 12. ESTIMATE: FRED still shows July U-Mich 55.2; Sept prelim is 47.8, which would add ~2 pts (true reading ~51, on the Elevated/High line). Only the oil lines were rewritten; other narrative text on this page is still May-dated. Known data issues: LEI series ends 2020 (scores 0), Sahm -0.07 rejected by the [0,3] range check.
2026-05-28 17:40 — AFTERNOON · BRENT DROPS $14 · SCORE DROPS A ZONE Model v3.0 — Score 53 → 47 (-6). Brent $102.75 (was $116.73) — largest oil move since closure began. Zone drops HIGH → ELEVATED. GDPNow pulled back to +3.82% (was +4.26%). HY OAS 271 (tightening). Geo overlay still +12 pending confirmation of Hormuz status.
2026-05-28 08:18 — MORNING · CLAIMS TICK UP · SCORE +1 Model v3.0 — Score 52 → 53 (+1). Initial Claims 215K (was 209K, wk May 23) — first uptick in weeks, still green. HY OAS 272 bps (tightening). Chicago NFCI -0.510 (slightly less loose). Yield curve -1bp to 0.48%. Brent flat $116.73 Hormuz Day 32+.
2026-05-27 06:39 — MORNING CHECK · YIELD CURVE BOUNCES Model v3.0 — Score 52 → 52 (flat). Yield curve bounced to +0.49% (was +0.43%) — partial recovery from Sunday's low. HY OAS holds at 274 bps (tightening trend intact). Bond markets calm. NFIB May releases today — watch for small business confidence update.
2026-05-26 09:42 — MEMORIAL DAY CHECK · SCORE HOLDS Model v3.0 — Score 52 → 52 (flat). HY OAS tightened to 274 bps (was 278) — credit markets continuing to ease. All other indicators unchanged. US markets closed. Next data: Thursday Initial Claims.
2026-05-24 20:07 — WEEKEND CHECK · YIELD CURVE DRIFTS Model v3.0 — Score 52 → 52 (flat). Yield curve slipped to +0.43% (was +0.49%) — down 6bp over the weekend. All other indicators unchanged. Brent $116.73 Day 30+ Hormuz. Score holds; yield curve trend is the developing watch item.
2026-05-22 15:19 — AFTERNOON · SCORE TICKS UP Model v3.0 — Score 51 → 52 (+1). Final May UMich Consumer Sentiment: 49.8 (prelim was 53.3 — worse than expected). Approaching April record low of 47.6. HY OAS tightened to 278 bps (was 280). Brent flat $116.73 Day 28+.
2026-05-22 07:48 — MORNING CHECK · SCORE HOLDS Model v3.0 — Score 51 → 51 (flat). All 12 FRED indicators unchanged from yesterday PM. Brent $116.73 (Day 28+ Hormuz). Weekend — next meaningful data expected Monday morning.
2026-05-21 16:46 — AFTERNOON CHECK · SCORE IMPROVES Model v3.0 — Score 53 → 51 (-2). GDPNow +4.26% (was +3.99%) · HY OAS 280 bps (was 286, tightening) · Claims 209K (was 211K) · Building permits 1,442K new April data (was 1,363K). Yield curve slipped to 0.49% (watch). Brent flat at $116.73 Day 27+ Hormuz.
2026-05-21 07:29 — MORNING CHECK · SCORE HOLDS Model v3.0 — Score 53 → 53 (flat). Brent $116.73 (unchanged, Day 27+ Hormuz) · Yield curve 0.53% (-1bp, noise) · All other indicators stable. Waiting on Hormuz resolution or June 16-17 FOMC.
2026-05-20 15:08 — BRENT SPIKES TO $116.73 Model v3.0 — Score 49 → 53 (+4). Brent crude jumped $10.62 in hours — oil component driving score back into HIGH territory. All other indicators unchanged. Hormuz situation appears to be escalating again.
2026-05-20 05:40 — ESI v3.0 LIVE · SCORE DROPS 20 PTS Model v3.0 — Score 69 → 49 (-20). Sahm Rule actual FRED: 0.13 (est was ~0.37) · GDPNow +3.99% · Smoothed Rec Prob 1.82% · LEI +30.3% 6-mo change (improving) · Yield curve +0.54. Underlying economy more resilient than geo stress suggests. Kalshi/Polymarket removed pending licensing.
2026-05-15 17:03 — FIRST LIVE FRED FEED Model v1.2 — Score 71 → 69 (-2). Yield curve +0.50% live (est was +0.15%) · HY OAS 276 bps live (est was 295) · Claims 211K green · Brent $106.11 · 5/5 validated.
2026-05-14 09:00 — TRUMP-XI SUMMIT Model v1.1 — Score 73 → 71 (-2). China endorses Hormuz open · Brent $106 · No Iran oil-cut deal · Taiwan warning added.
2026-05-13 16:30 — WARSH CONFIRMED Model v1.1 — Score 70 → 73 (+3). Warsh confirmed Fed Chair (hawk) · Trump landed Beijing · Iran cutting production preemptively.
2026-05-06 09:00 — PROJECT FREEDOM PAUSED Model v1.1 — Score 77 → 71 (-6). Most significant de-escalation since launch. China enters as broker. Diplomatic window open.
2026-05-04 09:00 — US-IRAN EXCHANGE OF FIRE Model v1.1 — Score 74 → 79 (+5). Operation Project Freedom activated. Iran cruise missiles at US Navy. UAE attacked. Brent +5% to $114.40.
2026-04-30 08:30 — MEGA-CATALYST DAY Model v1.1 — Score 75 → 78 (+3). Brent $126 intraday · GDP 2.0% miss · PCE 2.6% · FOMC 4 dissenters · SLOOS +5.3% · stagflation confirmed.
2026-04-24 16:30 — OIL TRIGGER FIRED Model v1.0 — Score 67 → 69 (+2). Day 5 of 5 consecutive above $100. Formal Brent RED trigger activated.
2026-04-22 09:00 — DASHBOARD LAUNCH Model v1.0 — Score: 68. Initial build.
2026-05-28 17:40 — AFTERNOON · BRENT DROPS $14 · SCORE DROPS A ZONE Model v3.0 — Score 53 → 47 (-6). Brent $102.75 (was $116.73) — largest oil move since closure began. Zone drops HIGH → ELEVATED. GDPNow pulled back to +3.82% (was +4.26%). HY OAS 271 (tightening). Geo overlay still +12 pending confirmation of Hormuz status.
2026-05-28 08:18 — MORNING · CLAIMS TICK UP · SCORE +1 Model v3.0 — Score 52 → 53 (+1). Initial Claims 215K (was 209K, wk May 23) — first uptick in weeks, still green. HY OAS 272 bps (tightening). Chicago NFCI -0.510 (slightly less loose). Yield curve -1bp to 0.48%. Brent flat $116.73 Hormuz Day 32+.
2026-05-27 06:39 — MORNING CHECK · YIELD CURVE BOUNCES Model v3.0 — Score 52 → 52 (flat). Yield curve bounced to +0.49% (was +0.43%) — partial recovery from Sunday's low. HY OAS holds at 274 bps (tightening trend intact). Bond markets calm. NFIB May releases today — watch for small business confidence update.
2026-05-26 09:42 — MEMORIAL DAY CHECK · SCORE HOLDS Model v3.0 — Score 52 → 52 (flat). HY OAS tightened to 274 bps (was 278) — credit markets continuing to ease. All other indicators unchanged. US markets closed. Next data: Thursday Initial Claims.
2026-05-24 20:07 — WEEKEND CHECK · YIELD CURVE DRIFTS Model v3.0 — Score 52 → 52 (flat). Yield curve slipped to +0.43% (was +0.49%) — down 6bp over the weekend. All other indicators unchanged. Brent $116.73 Day 30+ Hormuz. Score holds; yield curve trend is the developing watch item.
2026-05-22 15:19 — AFTERNOON · SCORE TICKS UP Model v3.0 — Score 51 → 52 (+1). Final May UMich Consumer Sentiment: 49.8 (prelim was 53.3 — worse than expected). Approaching April record low of 47.6. HY OAS tightened to 278 bps (was 280). Brent flat $116.73 Day 28+.
2026-05-22 07:48 — MORNING CHECK · SCORE HOLDS Model v3.0 — Score 51 → 51 (flat). All 12 FRED indicators unchanged from yesterday PM. Brent $116.73 (Day 28+ Hormuz). Weekend — next meaningful data expected Monday morning.
2026-05-21 16:46 — AFTERNOON CHECK · SCORE IMPROVES Model v3.0 — Score 53 → 51 (-2). GDPNow +4.26% (was +3.99%) · HY OAS 280 bps (was 286, tightening) · Claims 209K (was 211K) · Building permits 1,442K new April data (was 1,363K). Yield curve slipped to 0.49% (watch). Brent flat at $116.73 Day 27+ Hormuz.
2026-05-21 07:29 — MORNING CHECK · SCORE HOLDS Model v3.0 — Score 53 → 53 (flat). Brent $116.73 (unchanged, Day 27+ Hormuz) · Yield curve 0.53% (-1bp, noise) · All other indicators stable. Waiting on Hormuz resolution or June 16-17 FOMC.
2026-05-20 15:08 — BRENT SPIKES TO $116.73 Model v3.0 — Score 49 → 53 (+4). Brent crude jumped $10.62 in hours — oil component driving score back into HIGH territory. All other indicators unchanged. Hormuz situation appears to be escalating again.
2026-05-20 05:40 — ESI v3.0 LIVE · SCORE DROPS 20 PTS Model v3.0 — Score 69 → 49 (-20). Sahm Rule actual FRED: 0.13 (est was ~0.37) · GDPNow +3.99% · Smoothed Rec Prob 1.82% · LEI +30.3% 6-mo change (improving) · Yield curve +0.54. Underlying economy more resilient than geo stress suggests. Kalshi/Polymarket removed pending licensing.
2026-05-15 17:03 — FIRST LIVE FRED FEED Model v1.2 — Score 71 → 69 (-2). Yield curve +0.50% live (est was +0.15%) · HY OAS 276 bps live (est was 295) · Claims 211K green · Brent $106.11 · 5/5 validated.
2026-05-14 09:00 — TRUMP-XI SUMMIT Model v1.1 — Score 73 → 71 (-2). China endorses Hormuz open · Brent $106 · No Iran oil-cut deal · Taiwan warning added.
2026-05-13 16:30 — WARSH CONFIRMED Model v1.1 — Score 70 → 73 (+3). Warsh confirmed Fed Chair (hawk) · Trump landed Beijing · Iran cutting production preemptively.
2026-05-06 09:00 — PROJECT FREEDOM PAUSED Model v1.1 — Score 77 → 71 (-6). Most significant de-escalation since launch. China enters as broker. Diplomatic window open.
2026-05-04 09:00 — US-IRAN EXCHANGE OF FIRE Model v1.1 — Score 74 → 79 (+5). Operation Project Freedom activated. Iran cruise missiles at US Navy. UAE attacked. Brent +5% to $114.40.
2026-04-30 08:30 — MEGA-CATALYST DAY Model v1.1 — Score 75 → 78 (+3). Brent $126 intraday · GDP 2.0% miss · PCE 2.6% · FOMC 4 dissenters · SLOOS +5.3% · stagflation confirmed.
2026-04-24 16:30 — OIL TRIGGER FIRED Model v1.0 — Score 67 → 69 (+2). Day 5 of 5 consecutive above $100. Formal Brent RED trigger activated.
2026-04-22 09:00 — DASHBOARD LAUNCH Model v1.0 — Score: 68. Initial build.
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Data sources: Federal Reserve FRED, BLS, ISM, University of Michigan, NY Fed, Atlanta Fed, Conference Board. Institutional probability estimates (Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan) sourced from publicly reported figures as of May 2026 and may not reflect current positions — verify independently before relying on them.
Legal: All content on MainStreetMacro is for informational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial, investment, legal, or accounting advice. We are not a registered investment advisor. Use of this site does not create an advisory relationship. MainStreetMacro is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the Federal Reserve, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, ISM, Polymarket, Kalshi, or any other institution or data provider referenced on this site. Economic conditions change rapidly — verify all information independently before acting on it.
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Data sources: Federal Reserve FRED, BLS, ISM, University of Michigan, NY Fed, Atlanta Fed, Conference Board. Institutional probability estimates (Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan) sourced from publicly reported figures as of May 2026 and may not reflect current positions — verify independently before relying on them.
Legal: All content on MainStreetMacro is for informational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial, investment, legal, or accounting advice. We are not a registered investment advisor. Use of this site does not create an advisory relationship. MainStreetMacro is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the Federal Reserve, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, ISM, Polymarket, Kalshi, or any other institution or data provider referenced on this site. Economic conditions change rapidly — verify all information independently before acting on it.
© 2026 Refuge Creek Group LLC · Privacy Policy